The Full Circle: How USDC Supply Curve Shapes its Valuation

Howard Marks once said, “Accurately estimating intrinsic value is the foundation of sound, rational, and potentially profitable investing.” This principle holds particular significance in the context of USDC, a stablecoin whose valuation is deeply intertwined with its supply dynamics. As Circle’s landmark public listing highlights the growing institutional demand for regulated crypto infrastructure, the sustainability of its valuation hinges on the expansion of its core revenue engine, which is inextricably linked to the total supply of USDC. This article shifts the focus from narrative to data-driven analysis.

Circle derives over 95% of its revenue from USDC-related channels, making its valuation highly sensitive to short-term interest rates and the total circulation of USDC. We begin by structurally decomposing the USDC supply curve, examining changes in chain-level concentration, relative capital liquidity, and specific market environment inflection points to identify the variables most driving minting activity. Next, we introduce a recalibrated autoregressive model that predicts weekly supply with an error margin of approximately ±1.5%, directly translating incremental expansion into sensitivity to EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization). Finally, we demonstrate how this supply metric can serve as a real-time tradable signal, providing market participants with real-time insights into Circle’s fundamental dynamics.

Circle’s Valuation Structure

With a market capitalization of $58.2 billion, Circle’s Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple exceeds that of Visa by nearly eight times (Visa’s P/E is around 15). High-profile institutions like ARK Invest and BlackRock have shown unwavering confidence in Circle, indicating investors are not just valuing the current fundamentals but also betting on its potential for mass adoption. Maintaining this valuation requires Circle to sustain a robust trajectory of profitability growth. Historical data reveals that over 95% of Circle’s revenue stems from interest and dividends generated by its fiat asset reserves (such as bank cash, short-term U.S. Treasuries, and the Circle Reserve Fund managed by BlackRock). Consequently, its income is highly sensitive to short-term interest rates and USDC circulation.

Data sources: Yahoo Finance, SECEBITDA

Key components of Circle’s EBITDA sensitivity include:

· Net Interest Margin (NIM): Interest income from yield-bearing assets like U.S. Treasuries.

· Supply Flow Fees: Fees generated from USDC minting and redemption activities.

As the Federal Reserve approaches rate cuts, NIM is expected to compress. The market is pricing in a transition where revenue growth from transaction volume will outpace the impact of rate compression. This growth depends on USDC’s continued adoption as a global payment network, with its fee capture capabilities expanding alongside usage velocity, cross-border capital flows, and ecosystem integration. Understanding USDC’s supply dynamics is therefore critical—it serves not only as a leading indicator for Circle’s future revenue streams but also as a core anchor for its valuation, offering real-time insights into the development of its business model.

Stablecoin Supply Dynamics

The total supply of stablecoins has surged to a record $251 billion, up 34% from the previous cycle peak of $187 billion in 2021, reflecting significant capital inflows and renewed confidence in the crypto ecosystem. USDT and USDC account for over 86% of the total supply, with USDT leading at 62.1% and USDC at 24.2%. USDC, in particular, provides a clearer lens on regulated, institutional-grade demand.

To understand supply behavior across market cycles, we start with a simple supply flow formula:

ΔSt = Mt – Rt

Where:

· ΔSt: Net change in total stablecoin supply

· Mt: Minting volume (fiat → stablecoin)

· Rt: Redemption volume (stablecoin → fiat)

This dynamic reveals the core logic of stablecoin supply:

· Expansion occurs when minting exceeds redemption.

· Contraction occurs when redemption exceeds minting.

Observing USDC’s historical supply changes through this lens highlights correlations with key inflection points in the broader crypto industry timeline.

Accelerated Expansion (2025 and Beyond)

Following Circle’s public listing, USDC’s circulating supply has reached a record high of $61.2 billion, marking its evolution from a simple transactional stablecoin to a recognized core financial primitive. Since 2021:

· Daily transaction volume has increased by 406%, rising from $777 million to $3.15 billion.

· Daily active users have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 142.92% since 2020, reflecting rapid adoption across major ecosystems.

Data sources: Artemisxyz, Glassnode

USDC’s growth stems from three key drivers:

1. DeFi Renaissance: Revived interest and participation from crypto-native user communities.

2. Traditional Financial (TradFi) Adoption: Gradual acceptance in settlement, cash management, and capital allocation by broader traditional financial audiences.

3. Strategic Partnership with Coinbase: Unparalleled distribution advantages in retail, institutional, and on-chain ecosystems through collaboration with the world’s largest crypto user base.

Capital Efficiency: The True Measure of Value

Supply figures alone do not fully capture a stablecoin’s utility. What truly matters is the efficiency of capital flow. In Binance’s platform, while USDT dominates with a supply of $189 billion, USDC’s supply stands at $58.1 billion—only one-third of USDT’s. Yet, in trading volume over the past 30 days, the gap nearly disappears: USDT at $44.8 billion versus USDC at $38.7 billion, a difference of just 13.6%.

By calculating capital velocity (30-day trading volume divided by circulating supply), we can quantify efficiency:

USDT: $44.8B / $189B = 0.237

USDC: $38.7B / $58.1B = 0.666

This results in USDC’s capital velocity being 2.81 times that of USDT—every dollar of USDC is transacted nearly three times as frequently. This indicates faster capital flow and deeper on-chain utility for USDC.

Chain-Level Growth: Expansion into Alt-VMs and Layer 2

Data sources: Artemisxyz, DefiLlama, Visaonchain

USDC’s supply distribution is shifting from Ethereum-centric to a more diversified ecosystem including Solana, Ethereum Layer 2, and emerging Alt-VM chains. This reflects alignment with areas of highest liquidity, settlement demand, and on-chain utility expansion.

Solana’s USDC Dominance

USDC held a commanding 99.5% share of stablecoin trading volume on Solana in May 2024. Even as ecosystem activity diversified by December, USDC maintained a 96% market share.

Arbitrum’s Flippening

In September 2024, USDC surpassed USDT on Arbitrum, becoming the dominant stablecoin. At its peak, the supply ratio of Tether to USDC was 2.03 (Tether supply was over twice that of USDC). Today, this ratio has fallen to 0.2.

This shift was largely driven by Hyperliquid’s explosive growth, with its Total Value Locked (TVL) soaring from $600 million in Q4 2024 to $2.5 billion by the end of Q1 2025—a 417% increase. Hyperliquid’s bridge deposits now stand at a record $3.62 billion, up 601% from the Q4 baseline. This reflects Arbitrum’s unique structural alignment with expanded integrations, creating favorable conditions for stablecoin dominance.

USDC Supply Curve Quantification Model

Recognizing the importance of USDC supply dynamics, we developed an autoregressive (AR) model to predict total USDC supply. The AR model was chosen for its simplicity, transparency, and effectiveness in capturing the locally linear growth pattern of the USDC supply curve.

The model recalibrates every 90 days to capture recent market trends while ensuring robust sample sizes for regression and matrix calculations. Each prediction cycle uses a dedicated model trained on a 90-day sliding window (7 independent regression models, each with unique beta coefficients). Feature variables include moving averages (1-day, 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day), with predictions for future n-day averages where n ranges from 1 to 7. Regression constants are set to zero to ensure the model relies entirely on signal-driven inputs.

Since 2022, the model has correctly predicted 7-day average USDC supply with 80% probability within ±1.5% of the forecast.

Conclusion

Circle’s listing marks a pivotal moment in the crypto industry. It’s not merely a capital raise but evidence of pent-up market demand for stablecoins in public markets. Its performance underscores investor enthusiasm for regulated digital dollar infrastructure, solidifying Circle’s position as the most prominent public representative of this emerging asset class. With a valuation of $58.2 billion, Circle serves as the gateway for institutions into regulated digital liquidity, with USDC at its core.

As USDC embeds itself deeper into expanding DeFi ecosystems and traditional financial frameworks, its role is evolving beyond mere adoption metrics—it’s becoming a real-time global liquidity barometer, reflecting capital flows, risk sentiment, and market positioning. While stock market movements offer one way to bet on this growth, they often obscure the underlying dynamics.